Atlanta Thrashers Prospects Evaluation 1999 to 2017

July 02, 2017 by in Think (Hockey) tags: , ,

The 2017 NHL Entry Draft has come and gone and the Winnipeg Jets adding to their cupboard of future hockey players. This is the seventh draft for the franchise since moving to Winnipeg.

When it moved from Atlanta in 2011, the Winnipeg Jets inherited an empty cupboard of players and prospects. We just need to see the Winnipeg Jets records of marginal competitiveness for proof. The Winnipeg Jets essentially had to start restocking their prospects cupboard.

Drafting and developing is the single best way for a sports franchise to build success yet you will see in the year-by-year breakdown below that the Thrashers did a very poor job of drafting good players and then did a poor job of developing them. How did I track this? By tracking each Thrasher draft prospect according to a very simple, transparent statistic called ProGames (ProGms).

ProGames counts the number of NHL and AHL games that a drafted player accumulates for their new team. NHL games played count as 1.0 ProGms while AHL games played count as 0.5 ProGms, and these are accumulated across both Regular Season and Playoff Games. So a drafted player who plays 20 NHL and 10 AHL games for his new team will accumulate 25 ProGms for his team.

While the goal of the draft is to have each draftee become an NHL player that plays for the Thrashers/Jets, this is neither guaranteed or realistic. I believe that having players that play for the franchise’s AHL club is a demonstration of player development and is also critical for success. Playing for a farm team creates internal pressure and competition that is a hallmark of the best teams.

The table below tracks the number of games played in the NHL, played for an Atlanta-Winnipeg AHL team, played for Atlanta, played for Winnipeg, played for another NHL team, whether the player has left the franchise, and then I do a calculation of Franchise ProGms. The ProGms stat helps determine the effectiveness of Atlanta’s drafting and development.

ProGms/Years is a calculation of the ProGms divided by the Years Ago, which provides an averaging statistic to compare years against each other. The 2009 Draft stands as Atlanta’s best with a score of 109.25 while the worst Draft was in 2004 with an atrocious score of only 25.19.

 

Atlanta Thrashers / Winnipeg Jets Prospects from July 1999 to June 2017
2010 Entry  7 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        79.36
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
8 1 Alexander Burmistrov C Barrie Colts [OHL] 324 22 74 224 26 X       309.00
87 3 Julian Melchiori D Newmarket Hurricanes [OJHL] 30 275 0 30 0       167.50
101 4 Ivan Telegin C Saginaw Spirit [OHL] 0 34 0 0 0 X        17.00
128 5 Fredrik Petterson-Wentzel G Almtuna IS [Swe-1] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
150 5 Yasin Cisse F Des Moines Buccaneers [USHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
155 6 Kendal McFaull D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
160 6 Tanner Lane F Detroit Lakes H.S. [Minn.] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
169 6 Sebastian-Lance Owuya D Timra Jr. [Sweden] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
199 7 Peter Stoykewych D Winnipeg South Blues [MJHL] 0 124 0 0 0        62.00
Total 9 Players 354 455 74 254 26 7/9       555.50
2009 Entry  8 Years Ago ProGms/Years:       109.25
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
4 1 Evander Kane L Vancouver Giants [WHL] 496 0 139 222 135 X       361.00
34 2 Carl Klingberg L Frolunda Jrs. (Sweden) 12 289 1 11 0 X       156.50
45 2 Jeremy Morin L U.S. National Under-18 Team [Ind] 84 0 0 0 84 X             –
117 4 Edward Pasquale G Saginaw Spirit [OHL] 0 151 0 0 0 X        75.50
120 4 Ben Chiarot D Guelph Storm [OHL] 172 190 0 172 0       267.00
125 5 Cody Sol D Saginaw Spirit [OHL] 0 28 0 0 0 X        14.00
155 6 Jimmy Bubnick C Kamloops Blazers [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
185 7 Levko Koper L Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
203 7 Jordan Samuels-Thomas L Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
Total 9 Players 764 658 140 405 219 8/9       874.00
2008 Entry  9 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        57.11
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
3 1 Zach Bogosian D Peterborough Petes [OHL] 534 5 199 194 141 X       395.50
29 1 Daultan Leveille C St. Catharines Falcons [GHJHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
64 3 Danick Paquette R Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL] 0 4 0 0 0 X          2.00
94 4 Vinny Saponari R US National Under 18 Team 0 7 0 0 0 X          3.50
124 5 Nicklas Lasu L Frolunda Jrs (Sweden) 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
154 6 Chris Carrozzi G Mississauga St. Michael’s Majors [OHL] 0 6 0 0 0 X          3.00
184 7 Zach Redmond D Ferris State University [CCHA] 130 184 0 18 112 X       110.00
Total 7 Players 664 206 199 212 253 7/7       514.00
2007 Entry  10 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        68.75
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
67 3 Spencer Machacek R Vancouver Giants [WHL] 25 365 12 13 0 X       207.50
115 4 Niclas Lucenius C Tappara Tampere [SM-liiga] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
175 6 John Albert C US National Under 18 Team 9 319 0 9 0 X       168.50
205 7 Paul Postma D Swift Current Broncos [WHL] 191 241 1 190 0 X       311.50
Total 4 Players 225 925 13 212 0 4/4       687.50
2006 Entry  11 Years Ago ProGms/Years:       106.05
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
12 1 Bryan Little R Barrie Colts [OHL] 676 60 282 394 0       706.00
43 2 Riley Holzapfel L Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 0 344 0 0 0 X       172.00
80 3 Michael Forney L Thief River Falls H.S. (Minn.) 0 15 0 0 0 X          7.50
135 5 Alex Kangas G Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
165 6 Jonas Enlund C IFK Jr. [Finland] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
195 7 Jesse Martin C Spruce Grove Saints [AJHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
200 7 Arturs Kulda D CSKA-2 [Russia] 15 308 6 9 0 X       169.00
210 7 Will O’Neill D Tabor Academy (Mass.) 0 224 0 0 0 X       112.00
Total 8 Players 691 951 288 403 0 7/8    1,166.50
2005 Entry  12 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        62.46
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
16 1 Alex Bourret R Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL] 0 45 0 0 0 X        22.50
41 2 Ondrej Pavelec G Kladno Jrs (Czech Rep.) 383 134 119 264 0 X       450.00
49 2 Chad Denny D Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL] 0 51 0 0 0 X        25.50
53 2 Andrew Kozek W Surrey Eagles [BCHL] 0 138 0 0 0 X        69.00
116 4 Jordan Lavallee-Smotherman C Quebec Remparts [QMJHL] 4 256 4 0 0 X       132.00
135 5 Tomas Pospisil L Trinec Ocelari HC [Czech] 0 42 0 0 0 X        21.00
187 6 Andrey Zubarev D Ufa Salavat Yulayev [Russia] 4 51 4 0 0 X        29.50
207 7 Myles Stoesz L Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
Total 8 Players 391 717 127 264 0 8/8       749.50
2004 Entry  13 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        25.19
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
10 1 Boris Valabik D Kitchener Rangers [OHL] 80 206 80 0 0 X       183.00
40 2 Grant Lewis D Dartmouth College [ECAC] 1 125 1 0 0 X        63.50
76 3 Scott Lehman D Toronto St. Michael’s Majors [OHL] 1 104 1 0 0 X        53.00
106 4 Chad Painchaud R Mississauga IceDogs [OHL] 0 22 0 0 0 X        11.00
142 5 Juraj Gracik R Topolcany (Slovakia) 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
186 6 Dan Turple G Oshawa Generals [OHL] 0 14 0 0 0 X          7.00
204 7 Miikka Tuomainen L Tuto (Finland) 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
237 8 Mitch Carefoot C Cornell University [ECAC] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
270 9 Matt Siddall R Powell River Kings [BCHL] 0 20 0 0 0 X        10.00
Total 9 Players 82 491 82 0 0 9/9       327.50
2003 Entry  14 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        78.82
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
8 1 Braydon Coburn D Portland Winter Hawks [WHL] 886 109 38 0 848 X        92.50
110 4 Jim Sharrow D Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL] 0 89 0 0 0 X        44.50
116 4 Guillaume Desbiens R Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL] 23 87 0 0 23 X        43.50
136 4 Mike Vannelli D Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
145 5 Brett Sterling L Colorado College [WCHA] 30 293 19 0 11 X       165.50
175 6 Mike Hamilton F Merritt Centennials [BCHL] 0 36 0 0 0 X        18.00
203 7 Denis Loginov C Kazan Jrs. (Russia) 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
239 8 Tobias Enstrom D MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SEL] 680 0 380 300 0       680.00
269 9 Rylan Kaip C Notre Dame Hounds [SJHL] 0 119 0 0 0 X        59.50
Total 9 Players 1619 733 437 300 882 8/9    1,103.50
2002 Entry  15 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        76.30
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
2 1 Kari Lehtonen G Jokerit Helsinki [SM-liiga] 629 128 206 0 423 X       270.00
30 1 Jim Slater C Michigan State University [CCHA] 592 7 375 217 0 X       595.50
116 4 Patrick Dwyer R Western Michigan University [CCHA] 418 73 0 0 418 X        36.50
124 4 Lane Manson D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
144 5 Paul Flache D Brampton Battalion [OHL] 0 70 0 0 0 X        35.00
167 6 Brad Schell C Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 0 37 0 0 0 X        18.50
198 7 Nathan Oystrick D South Surrey Eagles [BCHL] 65 258 53 0 12 X       182.00
230 8 Colton Fretter R Chatham (WJBHL) 0 8 0 0 0 X          4.00
236 8 Tyler Boldt D Kamloops Blazers [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
257 8 Pauli Levokari D HIFK Helsinki [SM-liiga] 0 6 0 0 0 X          3.00
Total 10 Players 1704 587 634 217 853 10/10    1,144.50
2001 Entry Draft  16 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        63.31
Number Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
1 1 Ilya Kovalchuk L Moscow Spartak [Russia] 848 0 371 0 477 X       371.00
80 3 Michael Garnett G Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 24 118 24 0 0 X        83.00
100 4 Brian Sipotz D Miami University (Ohio) [CCHA] 0 423 0 0 0 X       211.50
112 4 Milan Gajic R Burnaby Bulldogs [BCHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
135 5 Colin Stuart L Colorado College [WCHA] 56 323 51 0 5 X       212.50
189 6 Pasi Nurminen G Jokerit Helsinki [SM-liiga] 125 20 125 0 0 X       135.00
199 7 Matt Suderman D Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
201 7 Colin FitzRandolph W Phillips-Exeter Academy (N.H.) 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
262 9 Mario Cartelli D Trinec Ocelari HC [Czech] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
Total 9 Players 1053 884 571 0 482 9/9    1,013.00
2000 Entry Draft  17 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        26.29
Number Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
2 1 Dany Heatley L U. of Wisconsin [WCHA] 756 0 190 0 566 X       190.00
31 2 Ilja Nikulin D Tver (Russia) 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
42 2 Libor Ustrnul D Plymouth Whalers [OHL] 0 125 0 0 0 X        62.50
107 4 Carl Mallette C Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
108 4 Blake Robson L Portland Winter Hawks [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
147 5 Matthew McRae F Cornell University [ECAC] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
168 6 Zdenek Smid G Karlovy Vary HC [Czech] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
178 6 Jeff Dwyer D Choate Rosemary Hall (Conn.) 0 21 0 0 0 X        10.50
180 6 Darcy Hordichuk L Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 559 119 44 0 515 X       103.50
230 8 Samu Isosalo C North Bay Centennials [OHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
242 8 Evan Nielsen D Notre Dame [CCHA] 0 26 0 0 0 X        13.00
244 8 Eric Bowen R Portland Winter Hawks [WHL] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
288 9 Mark McRae D Cornell University [ECAC] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
290 9 Simon Gamache L Val d’Or Foreurs [QMJHL] 48 127 4 0 44 X        67.50
Total 14 Players 1363 418 238 0 1125 14/14       447.00
1999 Entry Draft  18 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        80.75
Number Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
1 1 Patrik Stefan C Long Beach Ice Dogs [IHL] 455 5 414 0 41 X       416.50
30 2 Luke Sellars D Ottawa 67’s [OHL] 1 105 1 0 0 X        53.50
68 3 Zdenek Blatny L Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] 25 196 20 0 5 X       118.00
98 4 David Kaczowka L Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] 0 1 0 0 0 X          0.50
99 4 Rob Zepp G Plymouth Whalers [OHL] 10 0 0 0 10 X             –
128 5 Derek MacKenzie C Sudbury Wolves [OHL] 389 414 28 0 361 X       235.00
159 6 Yuri Dobryshkin F Krylja Sovetov [Russia] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
188 7 Stephen Baby R Green Bay Gamblers [USHL] 0 195 0 0 0 X        97.50
217 8 Garnet Exelby D Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 408 162 346 0 62 X       427.00
245 9 Tommi Santala C Jokerit Helsinki [SM-liiga] 63 145 33 0 30 X       105.50
246 9 Ray DiLauro D St. Lawrence University [ECAC] 0 0 0 0 0 X             –
Total 11 Players 1351 1223 842 0 509 11/11    1,453.50
NHL-GP FARM-GP ATL-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms
107 Players Drafted Total 12 seasons 10261 8248 3645 2267 4349 102/107  10,036.00
ProGms/Years:        69.47

 

This post is too long to go into an analysis about what these results mean, but just in browsing the numbers you can see that there was some atrocious draft years for Atlanta. The other thing that stands out is that drafted players went on to play more NHL games for other teams than what it did for Atlanta! You cannot create a competitive organization if you trade your players all of the time. The Thrashers’ ineptness is not surprising.

About The Author:

Chris Billows is a knowledge seeker, a libertarian who believes in social responsibility, a health care bureaucrat, and a business dabbler. The Journals of Doc Surge is his personal blog. Doc Surge (a cool synonym for Billows) is inspired by Doc Brass from the Planetary Comic series who in turn was inspired by the 1930s pulp hero Doc Savage.

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