Winnipeg Jets Prospects Evaluation 2011 to 2017

July 02, 2017 by in Think (Hockey) tags: , ,

Following the recently held 2017 NHL Entry Draft, I am updating my evaluation on the cumulative draft and develop progress of the Winnipeg Jets.

Drafting is the single best way for a sports franchise to build success so its not surprising that Winnipeg Jets Management has made draft and develop its central strategy. This post (and the one that preceded it) will break down how the Jets have done with their 2011 to 2016 draft picks up to the end of 2016-17 season (which is why this evaluation goes from 2011 to 2016 even thought the 2017 draft class is listed).

I have created a table that tracks each draft prospect taken by the Jets according to a very simple, transparent statistic called ProGames (ProGms).

ProGames counts the number of NHL and AHL games that a drafted player accumulates for their new team. NHL games played count as 1.0 ProGms while AHL games played count as 0.5 ProGms, and these are accumulated across both Regular Season and Playoff Games. So a drafted player who plays 20 NHL and 10 AHL games for his new team will accumulate 25 ProGms for his team.

While the goal of the draft is to have each draftee become an NHL player that plays for the Winnipeg Jets, this is neither guaranteed or realistic. I believe that having players that play for the Jets’ AHL club is a demonstration of player development and is also critical for success. Playing for a farm team creates internal pressure and competition that is a hallmark of the best teams.

ProGms/Years is a calculation of the ProGms divided by the Years Ago, which provides an averaging statistic to compare years against each other. Since transferring the Winnipeg, the franchise has averaged a score of 115.90 compared to the Atlanta score of 69.47. The Winnipeg Jets have so far drafted far better than Atlanta has and it shows in some of the elite talent and depth created.

Note that not all of the players are Draftees. Between 2011 and 2017 the Jets did sign three Undrafted Free Agents which I believe is important to capture since it still demonstrates the choosing and development of new talent.

 

Winnipeg Jets Prospects from July 2011 to June 2017
2017 Entry Draft  0 Years Ago ProGms/Years:             –
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
24 1 Kristian Vesalainen C Frolunda HC [SweHL] 0 0 0 0             –
43 2 Dylan Samberg D Hermantown [Minn. H.S.] 0 0 0 0             –
74 3 Jonathan Kovacevic D Merrimack College [H-East] 0 0 0 0             –
105 4 Santeri Virtanen C TPS [Finland-Jrs] 0 0 0 0             –
136 5 Leon Gawanke D Cape Breton Screaming Eagles [QMJHL] 0 0 0 0             –
167 6 Arvid Holm G Karlskrona [Sweden-Jrs] 0 0 0 0             –
198 7 Skyler McKenzie L Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 0 0 0 0             –
211 7 Croix Evingson D Shreveport Mudbugs [NAHL] 0 0 0 0             –
Total 8 Players 0 0 0 0 0/8             –
2016 Entry Draft  1 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        75.00
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
2 1 Patrik Laine R Tappara Tampere [SM-liiga] 73 0 73 0        73.00
18 1 Logan Stanley D Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 0 0 0 0             –
79 3 Luke Green D Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL] 0 4 0 0         2.00
97 4 Jacob Cederholm D HV71 Jrs (Sweden) 0 0 0 0             –
127 5 Jordan Stallard C Calgary Hitmen [WHL] 0 0 0 0             –
157 6 Mikhail Berdin G Russia U-18 Team 0 0 0 0             –
Total 6 Players 73 4 73 0 0/6        75.00
2015 Entry Draft  2 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        76.00
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
17 1 Kyle Connor L Youngstown Phantoms [USHL] 20 52 20 0        46.00
25 1 Jack Roslovic C U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 1 65 1 0        33.50
47 2 Jansen Harkins C Prince George Cougars [WHL] 0 10 0 0         5.00
78 3 Erik Foley L Cedar Rapids RoughRiders [USHL] 0 0 0 0             –
108 4 Michael Spacek R Pardubice HC [Czech] 0 4 0 0         2.00
168 6 Mason Appleton F Tri-City Storm [USHL] 0 0 0 0             –
198 7 Sami Niku D JYP Jrs. (Finland) 0 0 0 0             –
203 7 Matteo Gennaro C Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
Free Agent FA Brandon Tanev L Providence College [H-East] 54 23 54 0        65.50
Total 9 Players 75 154 75 0 1/9      152.00
2014 Entry Draft  3 Years Ago ProGms/Years:        89.00
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
9 1 Nikolaj Ehlers L Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL] 154 0 154 0      154.00
69 3 Jack Glover D U.S. National Under-18 Team [USHL] 0 0 0 0             –
99 4 Chase De Leo C Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 2 142 2 0        73.00
101 4 Nelson Nogier D Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 10 60 10 0        40.00
129 5 C.J. Franklin F Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL] 0 0 0 0             –
164 6 Pavel Kraskovsky F Yaroslavl (Russia Jrs.) 0 0 0 0             –
192 7 Matt Ustaski F Langley Rivermen [BCHL] 0 0 0 0             –
Total 7 Players 166 202 166 0 0/7      267.00
2013 Entry Draft  4 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      215.50
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
13 1 Josh Morrissey D Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 83 85 83 0      125.50
43 2 Nicolas Petan C Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 80 56 80 0      108.00
59 2 Eric Comrie G Tri-City Americans [WHL] 1 102 1 0        52.00
84 3 Jimmy Lodge C Saginaw Spirit [OHL] 0 108 0 0        54.00
91 3 J.C. Lipon R Kamloops Blazers [WHL] 9 277 9 0      147.50
104 4 Andrew Copp C U. of Michigan [CCHA] 142 8 142 0      146.00
114 4 Jan Kostalek D Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL] 0 112 0 0        56.00
127 5 Tucker Poolman D Omaha Lancers [USHL] 0 0 0 0             –
190 7 Brenden Kichton D Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 0 293 0 0 X  Not Re-signed      146.50
194 7 Marcus Karlstrom D AIK Jrs. (Sweden) 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
Free Agent FA Juho Olkinuora G U. of Denver [WCHA] 0 20 0 0 X  Not Re-signed        10.00
Free Agent FA Axel Blomqvist F Victoria [WHL] 0 33 0 0 X Released        16.50
Total 12 Players 315 1094 315 0 4/12      862.00
2012 Entry Draft  5 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      120.50
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
9 1 Jacob Trouba D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 275 0 275 0      275.00
39 2 Lukas Sutter C Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
70 3 Scott Kosmachuk R Guelph Storm [OHL] 8 195 8 0 X  Not Re-signed      105.50
130 5 Connor Hellebuyck G Odessa Jackalopes [NAHL] 82 88 82 0      126.00
160 6 Ryan Olsen C Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 0 181 0 0 X  Not Re-signed        90.50
190 7 Jamie Phillips G Toronto Jr. Canadiens [OJHL] 0 11 0 0         5.50
Total 6 Players 365 475 365 0 3/6      602.50
2011 Entry Draft  6 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      119.42
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
7 1 Mark Scheifele C Barrie Colts [OHL] 310 10 310 0      315.00
67 3 Adam Lowry L Swift Current Broncos [WHL] 240 94 240 0      287.00
78 3 Brennan Serville D Stouffville Spirit [OJHL] 0 15 0 0 X  Not Re-signed         7.50
119 4 Zach Yuen D Tri-City Americans [WHL] 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
149 5 Austen Brassard R Belleville Bulls [OHL] 0 183 0 0 X  Not Re-signed        91.50
157 6 Jason Kasdorf G Portage Terriers [MJHL] 0 0 0 0 X Traded             –
187 7 Aaron Harstad D Green Bay Gamblers [USHL] 0 31 0 0 X  Not Re-signed        15.50
Total 7 Players 550 333 550 0 5/7      716.50
NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms/Years: ProGms
56 Players Drafted & FA Signed 6 seasons 1544 2262 1544 0 13/56             115.90 2675.00

 

 

So after six drafts the Winnipeg Jets have accumulated 2675 ProGms (up from 1568.5) with 48 prospects (I’m not counting the 2017 draft class).  The 2016-17 season continued the previous season’s issues with inconsistency and mediocrity. The ProGms increase substantially yet neither the Winnipeg Jets and Manitoba Moose were close to making the playoffs. It appears that the continued plan by TNSE to introduce so many fresh prospects into their system at the same time has resulted in a losing effort on both NHL and AHL clubs.

About The Author:

Chris Billows is a knowledge seeker, a libertarian who believes in social responsibility, a health care bureaucrat, and a business dabbler. The Journals of Doc Surge is his personal blog. Doc Surge (a cool synonym for Billows) is inspired by Doc Brass from the Planetary Comic series who in turn was inspired by the 1930s pulp hero Doc Savage.

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