Winnipeg Jets Prospects Evaluation 2011 to 2018

August 25, 2018 by in Jets Flight Control tags: , ,

Following the June 2018 NHL Entry Draft, I am updating my evaluation on the cumulative draft and develop progress of the Winnipeg Jets.

Drafting is the single best way for a sports franchise to build success so its not surprising that Winnipeg Jets Management has made draft and develop its central strategy. This post (and the one that preceded it) will break down how the Jets have done with their 2011 to 2017 draft picks up to the end of 2017-18 season (which is why this evaluation goes from 2011 to 2017 even thought the 2018 draft class is listed).

I have created a table that tracks each draft prospect taken by the Jets according to a very simple, transparent statistic called ProGames (ProGms).

ProGames counts the number of NHL and AHL games that a drafted player accumulates for their new team. NHL games played count as 1.0 ProGms while AHL games played count as 0.5 ProGms, and these are accumulated across both Regular Season and Playoff Games. So a drafted player who plays 20 NHL and 10 AHL games for his new team will accumulate 25 ProGms for his team.

While the goal of the draft is to have each draftee become an NHL player that plays for the Winnipeg Jets, this is neither guaranteed or realistic. I believe that having players that play for the Jets’ AHL club is a demonstration of player development and is also critical for success. Playing for a farm team creates internal pressure and competition that is a hallmark of the best teams.

ProGms/Years is a calculation of the ProGms divided by the Years Ago, which provides an averaging statistic to compare years against each other. Since transferring the Winnipeg, the franchise has averaged a score of 168.39 compared to the Atlanta score of 66.08. The Winnipeg Jets have so far drafted far better than Atlanta has and it shows in some of the elite talent and depth created and recent winning ways.

Note that not all of the players are Draftees. Between 2011 and 2018 the Jets did sign three Undrafted Free Agents which I believe is important to capture since it still demonstrates the choosing and development of new talent.

 

Winnipeg Jets Prospects from July 2011 to June 2018
2018 Entry Draft  0 Years Ago ProGms/Years:             –
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
60 2 David Gustafsson C HV71 Jonkoping [SweHL] 0 0 0 0             –
91 3 Nathan Smith C Cedar Rapids RoughRiders [USHL] 0 0 0 0             –
150 5 Declan Chisholm D Peterborough Petes [OHL] 0 0 0 0             –
153 5 Giovanni Vallati D Kitchener Rangers [OHL] 0 0 0 0             –
184 6 Jared Moe G Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL] 0 0 0 0             –
215 7 Austin Wong C Okotoks Oilers [AJHL] 0 0 0 0             –
Total 6 Players 0 0 0 0 0/6             –
2017 Entry Draft  1 Years Ago ProGms/Years:         1.50
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
24 1 Kristian Vesalainen C Frolunda HC [SweHL] 0 0 0 0             –
43 2 Dylan Samberg D Hermantown [Minn. H.S.] 0 0 0 0             –
74 3 Jonathan Kovacevic D Merrimack College [H-East] 0 0 0 0             –
105 4 Santeri Virtanen C TPS [Finland-Jrs] 0 0 0 0             –
136 5 Leon Gawanke D Cape Breton Screaming Eagles [QMJHL] 0 0 0 0             –
167 6 Arvid Holm G Karlskrona [Sweden-Jrs] 0 0 0 0             –
198 7 Skyler McKenzie L Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 0 3 0 0         1.50
211 7 Croix Evingson D Shreveport Mudbugs [NAHL] 0 0 0 0             –
Total 8 Players 0 3 0 0 0/8         1.50
2016 Entry Draft  2 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      174.50
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
2 1 Patrik Laine R Tappara Tampere [SM-liiga] 172 0 172 0      172.00
18 1 Logan Stanley D Windsor Spitfires [OHL] 0 0 0 0             –
79 3 Luke Green D Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL] 0 4 0 0         2.00
97 4 Jacob Cederholm D HV71 Jrs (Sweden) 0 1 0 0         0.50
127 5 Jordan Stallard C Calgary Hitmen [WHL] 0 0 0 0             –
157 6 Mikhail Berdin G Russia U-18 Team 0 0 0 0             –
Total 6 Players 172 5 172 0 0/6      174.50
2015 Entry Draft  3 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      263.25
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
17 1 Kyle Connor L Youngstown Phantoms [USHL] 113 56 113 0      141.00
25 1 Jack Roslovic C U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 42 97 42 0        90.50
47 2 Jansen Harkins C Prince George Cougars [WHL] 0 58 0 0        29.00
78 3 Erik Foley L Cedar Rapids RoughRiders [USHL] 0 0 0 0 X Traded             –
108 4 Michael Spacek R Pardubice HC [Czech] 0 80 0 0        40.00
168 6 Mason Appleton F Tri-City Storm [USHL] 0 78 0 0        39.00
198 7 Sami Niku D JYP Jrs. (Finland) 1 85 1 0        43.50
203 7 Matteo Gennaro C Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
Free Agent FA Brandon Tanev L Providence College [H-East] 132 23 132 0      143.50
Total 9 Players 288 477 288 0 2/9      526.50
2014 Entry Draft  4 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      138.50
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
9 1 Nikolaj Ehlers L Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL] 251 0 251 0      251.00
69 3 Jack Glover D U.S. National Under-18 Team [USHL] 0 0 0 0             –
99 4 Chase De Leo C Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 2 220 2 0      112.00
101 4 Nelson Nogier D Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 10 75 10 0        47.50
129 5 C.J. Suess F Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL] 0 9 0 0         4.50
164 6 Pavel Kraskovsky F Yaroslavl (Russia Jrs.) 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
192 7 Matt Ustaski F Langley Rivermen [BCHL] 0 1 0 0         0.50
Total 7 Players 263 305 263 0 1/7      415.50
2013 Entry Draft  5 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      306.50
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
13 1 Josh Morrissey D Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] 180 85 180 0      222.50
43 2 Nicolas Petan C Portland Winterhawks [WHL] 95 117 95 0      153.50
59 2 Eric Comrie G Tri-City Americans [WHL] 4 145 4 0        76.50
84 3 Jimmy Lodge C Saginaw Spirit [OHL] 0 114 0 0        57.00
91 3 J.C. Lipon R Kamloops Blazers [WHL] 9 354 9 0      186.00
104 4 Andrew Copp C U. of Michigan [CCHA] 240 8 240 0      244.00
114 4 Jan Kostalek D Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL] 0 158 0 0        79.00
127 5 Tucker Poolman D Omaha Lancers [USHL] 26 17 26 0        34.50
190 7 Brenden Kichton D Spokane Chiefs [WHL] 0 293 0 0 X  Not Re-signed      146.50
194 7 Marcus Karlstrom D AIK Jrs. (Sweden) 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
Free Agent FA Juho Olkinuora G U. of Denver [WCHA] 0 20 0 0 X  Not Re-signed        10.00
Free Agent FA Axel Blomqvist F Victoria [WHL] 0 33 0 0 X Released        16.50
Total 12 Players 554 1344 554 0 4/12   1,226.00
2012 Entry Draft  6 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      153.40
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
9 1 Jacob Trouba D U.S. National Development Team [USHL] 347 0 347 0      347.00
39 2 Lukas Sutter C Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
70 3 Scott Kosmachuk R Guelph Storm [OHL] 8 195 8 0 X  Not Re-signed      105.50
130 5 Connor Hellebuyck G Odessa Jackalopes [NAHL] 166 88 166 0      210.00
160 6 Ryan Olsen C Saskatoon Blades [WHL] 0 181 0 0 X  Not Re-signed        90.50
190 7 Jamie Phillips G Toronto Jr. Canadiens [OJHL] 0 28 0 0        14.00
Total 6 Players 521 492 521 0 3/6      767.00
2011 Entry Draft  7 Years Ago ProGms/Years:      142.58
Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT Notes ProGms
7 1 Mark Scheifele C Barrie Colts [OHL] 387 10 387 0      392.00
67 3 Adam Lowry L Swift Current Broncos [WHL] 302 94 302 0      349.00
78 3 Brennan Serville D Stouffville Spirit [OJHL] 0 15 0 0 X  Not Re-signed         7.50
119 4 Zach Yuen D Tri-City Americans [WHL] 0 0 0 0 X Unsigned             –
149 5 Austen Brassard R Belleville Bulls [OHL] 0 183 0 0 X  Not Re-signed        91.50
157 6 Jason Kasdorf G Portage Terriers [MJHL] 0 0 0 0 X Traded             –
187 7 Aaron Harstad D Green Bay Gamblers [USHL] 0 31 0 0 X  Not Re-signed        15.50
Total 7 Players 689 333 689 0 5/7      855.50
NHL-GP FARM-GP WPG-GP OTH-GP EXIT ProGms/Years: ProGms
61 Players Drafted & FA Signed 8 seasons 2487 2959 2487 0 13/61             168.39 3966.50

 

So after seven drafts the Winnipeg Jets have accumulated 3966.5 ProGms (up from 2675) with 55 prospects (I’m not counting the 2018 draft class).  The 2017-18 season saw a momentous step forward with the Winnipeg Jets finishing second overall in the standings and making it to the final four of the playoffs. The ProGms increased substantially as the faith in the young talent finally paid dividends at both the Winnipeg Jets and Manitoba Moose levels. It remains to be seen whether the young talent will be able to maintain their consistency.

About The Author:

Chris Billows is a knowledge seeker, a libertarian who believes in social responsibility, a health care bureaucrat, and a business dabbler. The Journals of Doc Surge is his personal blog. Doc Surge (a cool synonym for Billows) is inspired by Doc Brass from the Planetary Comic series who in turn was inspired by the 1930s pulp hero Doc Savage.

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