Journals of Doc Surge

Jul 16

The Moose are Loose! Correction. They’re Lost

July 16, 2017 by Chris Billows in Think (Hockey) 0 comments tags: Drafted Jets, Jets Farm Team, Jets Improvement

Its July and hockey is in hibernation mode. Its also a time to look back and see what our local hockey AHL team has accomplished. It has been two years since the Manitoba Moose have returned. It is pretty unique and special to see a NHL and AHL team share the same market and fanbase. Along with Toronto and San Jose, Winnipeg has its NHL and AHL affiliate play and operate in the same city. Fans can see young prospects learn the pro-game for a few seasons in the AHL and then move up to the NHL club down the hall/street. True North Sports Entertainment has appealed to that dynamic by marketing a rallying cry for the Manitoba Moose, “It all starts here!” It sounds great but when you look at the win-loss record, potential Winnipeg Jets players are starting off on the wrong foot. Year Win % Playoffs Avg Age 2011-12* 0.618 Conf. Finals 24.74 2012-13* 0.474 DNQ 24.85 2013-14* 0.651 Finals 24.45 2014-15* 0.493 DNQ 24.81 2015-16 0.401 DNQ 23.80 2016-17 0.447 DNQ 23.25 * Played in St-John’s, Newfoundland as the St-John’s IceCaps. The IceCaps/Moose started off quite well but now have three consecutive years of losing […]

Jul 09

Winnipeg Jets Cumulative Trades Score 2011-2017

July 09, 2017 by Chris Billows in Think (Hockey) 0 comments tags: Jets Trades

Player Trading is a useful way for NHL Teams to supplement and refresh their roster. It becomes possible to get rid of players that need a change and giving a fresh start to the players you get or build for the future. The Winnipeg Jets are known to be a team that makes very few trades. Since they arrived in Winnipeg, GM Cheveldayoff has made only 19 trades over five years. But how has the Winnipeg Jets fared with these trades? Are they winning or losing? This article attempts to answer that question. I have created a table that tracks each trade conducted by the Jets that compares traded players according to a very simple, transparent statistic called ProGames (ProGms). ProGames counts the number of NHL and AHL games that a traded player accumulates for their new team. NHL games played count as 1.0 ProGms while AHL games played count as 0.5 ProGms, and these are accumulated across both Regular Season and Playoff Games. So a traded player who plays 20 NHL and 10 AHL games for his new team will accumulate 25 ProGms for his team. So why just games played instead of points or other stats? Because not […]

Jul 02

Atlanta Thrashers Prospects Evaluation 1999 to 2017

July 02, 2017 by Chris Billows in Think (Hockey) 0 comments tags: Jets Draft, Jets Improvement, Minor League Stats

The 2017 NHL Entry Draft has come and gone and the Winnipeg Jets adding to their cupboard of future hockey players. This is the seventh draft for the franchise since moving to Winnipeg. When it moved from Atlanta in 2011, the Winnipeg Jets inherited an empty cupboard of players and prospects. We just need to see the Winnipeg Jets records of marginal competitiveness for proof. The Winnipeg Jets essentially had to start restocking their prospects cupboard. Drafting and developing is the single best way for a sports franchise to build success yet you will see in the year-by-year breakdown below that the Thrashers did a very poor job of drafting good players and then did a poor job of developing them. How did I track this? By tracking each Thrasher draft prospect according to a very simple, transparent statistic called ProGames (ProGms). ProGames counts the number of NHL and AHL games that a drafted player accumulates for their new team. NHL games played count as 1.0 ProGms while AHL games played count as 0.5 ProGms, and these are accumulated across both Regular Season and Playoff Games. So a drafted player who plays 20 NHL and 10 AHL games for his […]

Jul 02

Winnipeg Jets Prospects Evaluation 2011 to 2017

July 02, 2017 by Chris Billows in Think (Hockey) 0 comments tags: Jets Draft, Jets Improvement, Minor League Stats

Following the recently held 2017 NHL Entry Draft, I am updating my evaluation on the cumulative draft and develop progress of the Winnipeg Jets. Drafting is the single best way for a sports franchise to build success so its not surprising that Winnipeg Jets Management has made draft and develop its central strategy. This post (and the one that preceded it) will break down how the Jets have done with their 2011 to 2016 draft picks up to the end of 2016-17 season (which is why this evaluation goes from 2011 to 2016 even thought the 2017 draft class is listed). I have created a table that tracks each draft prospect taken by the Jets according to a very simple, transparent statistic called ProGames (ProGms). ProGames counts the number of NHL and AHL games that a drafted player accumulates for their new team. NHL games played count as 1.0 ProGms while AHL games played count as 0.5 ProGms, and these are accumulated across both Regular Season and Playoff Games. So a drafted player who plays 20 NHL and 10 AHL games for his new team will accumulate 25 ProGms for his team. While the goal of the draft is to […]

Jun 24

Measurement as Power

June 24, 2017 by Chris Billows in Think (Games) 0 comments tags: Games Analysis, Playstates

I’ve read a few articles and posts criticizing Video Games being too much about Power Fantasy. The dynamics found in leveling a character, getting better gear, defeating an enemy, accumulating resources, exploiting an environment, etc. is all about dominating something else and the 4X genre would be its marquee. The aesthetics contained in Power Fantasy is a turn off to a minority of players, who fall into the trap of criticizing the entire industry unfairly. The reason why I say it is unfair is because I believe there is a very valid reason why Video Games naturally gravitate towards Power Fantasy. Video Games tend towards Power Fantasy because Games are about the Play of Measurement and measurement is essentially another term for power. This was beautifully captured in Carroll Quigley’s The Evolution Of Civilizations which talked about how the first hierarchies of civilization arose by their ability to track the measurements of the stars: Page 211-213 ... The chief tasks of the priesthoods, at the later date, beyond their obvious religious functions, were the study of the stars and the keeping of the records of celestial observations. From this evidence we might infer that, at some remote date, some unsung […]

Jun 17

The Playstates of Fandom

June 17, 2017 by Chris Billows in Think (Games) 0 comments tags: Playstates

Playstates can be found as distinct activities within the Fandom industry. I call it Followship and would define it as the act of collecting, collating, and consuming a Media Franchise. It is an elaboration on the concept of Fandom using the five Playstates. We can find Playstates in Fandom with the following examples: Toys/Playgrounds – toys and fan clubs/conventions. Role-Plays – fanboys/fangirls and cosplays. Puzzles – fan-fiction and plot/canon holes. Games – collecting the Media Franchise. Sports – fans who root for favorite media franchise to be popular. While Fandom is the industry, Followship is the distinct behaviors of play found within it.

Jun 12

The Immersion Accords

June 12, 2017 by Chris Billows in Think (Games) 0 comments tags: Change of Mind, Comprehensive Analysis, Playstates

After posting about Playstates, a commentator on Twitter said that he wanted to see more discussion about how Playstates relates to core concepts like Interactivity, Narrative, etc. I had intentionally left out those concepts because I wanted to stay away from a dead-end debate. Many game designers and developers have argued that Games and Video Games in particular have a unique monopoly with those concepts. I admit that I thought so as well but now I see it in a new way after writing this article. The problem I think is that we have assigned those concepts to Games and Video Games because that is where they are most overtly demonstrated. When we think Game, we automatically think about how to play its rules, how we interact with it, how the rules affects our agency, and the underlying mechanics that makes the Game run. The push by some Video Game designers to see Narratives as being critical to a Game is a relatively recent occurrence. But similarly to how definitions can be broad but not deep enough, I think the same limitation has occurred here. We have captured the obvious, low-hanging fruit. While an arcade game has easy to see […]

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