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May 09

The Answer to Organizational Failure: Complexity Science

by Chris Billows in Business Beller 0 comments tags: Comprehensive Analysis, Corporations Don't Think, Defining Life, Foolishness, Institutional Learning, Summarizing a Business Organization
I can’t recall how I stumbled onto this concept and websites, but a while ago I found this riveting theory which I believe explains why most modern organizations are so inadequate at times and spend far too much time chasing the wrong priorities. I have touched on parts of this in previous blogs such as Driven to Distraction and Even the Best Systems Fall Victim and A List of Guidance. The reason why this happens is they fail to embrace Complexity Science. Basically, it is because our social institutions continue to operate like machines, believing that events can be tracked in a linear fashion and have measurable inputs that neatly match known outputs. While there is no denying that some institutions do operate like machines (take most factories), the fact that humans end up doing most of the work leaves the model sorely lacking. What is more accurate is to realize that all human based organizations are non-linear and complex. It is common for these systems to exhibit the following characteristics: Small inputs can lead to dramatically large consequences. Very slight differences in initial conditions produce very different outcomes. Global properties flow from aggregate behavior of individuals. Emergence (of order) […]

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Apr 30

Investing Principles Made Simple

by Chris Billows in Business Beller 0 comments tags: How to Understand Money, Smart Money Management
You do not need to be an accountant or a financial wizard to handle your investments. There are some basic principles to follow, known as the KISS principle. KISS is generally know to stand for “Keep It Short & Simple” but I think the acronym can also apply to investing: K – Keep invested I – Invest in stocks S – Self-direct your investments S – Small investments possess an advantage K – Keep invested and don’t become discouraged There are lots of people who enter the stock market, get burned, drop out, and then hand their finances over to a broker or mutual fund seller. That is the wrong thing to do. Losing money in the stock market is all a part of learning how to invest. I have lost thousands on bad investments but I have also made more thousands on good investments. I still come out ahead because the good investments are that much better and I have invested wisely. The worst thing I could do is become discouraged and drop out of the market. Investing is like any skill. It takes practice and knowledge to master. You need to keep investing and learning. The trick is […]

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Apr 09

Are Pension Plans a Type of Ponzi Scheme?

by Chris Billows in Business Beller 0 comments tags: Corporate Corruption, Foolishness, Human Condition
I was reading about Bernie Madoff’s investment scandal and it suddenly struck me that defined-benefit pension plans (public and private) operate on the same principal as Madoff’s Ponzi plan. Bernie Madoff defrauded his investors of $65 billion dollars with a massive ponzi scheme. Madoff was smart by never offering suspicious high returns to everyone, but did guarantee a steady and modest return regardless of the state of the stock market. This latter point should be suspicious to any intelligent investor. Yet that is exactly what our public and private defined benefit plans are doing. They guarantee a return or benefit rate. Yet how can they do this? Just like Madoff did, by using new money brought in from new investors (or pension contributors) to help meet the payout obligations. As long as new citizens grow up and are forced to contribute to the pension plans, the plan remains viable. But, perhaps we would all be better served by a defined-contribution plan, where the return is based on how well one’s money is managed, instead of compelling citizens to make pension contributions to maintain unsustainable payouts.

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Mar 17

Credit Crisis Challenges Convictions

by Chris Billows in Business Beller 0 comments tags: Change of Mind, Corporate Corruption, Free Enterprise
I have re-watched the Credit Crisis video a few times and each time its message really hits home. Not only was the crisis created by collective greed, but also a sophisticated scheme to generate money without actually contributing much useful. It was all about getting rewarded without doing any heavy work. Sure sounds like socialism. It is a socialist ideal to have people have all their needs met with minimal effort on their own part. Only within socialism are people allowed to make poor choices and still get away with it, because after-all the larger community will take care of you. Yet what we are witnessing is not socialism in its pure form. What we are seeing is a kind of socialism known as State Capitalism. This is where governments in the US, UK, and other places prop up their banks and financial institutions. This ends up saving and rewarding many of the same people who created the credit crisis. Yet, just like in the video, the state stood aside and allowed this to happen and even contributed to it by keeping interest rates too low. The state has to step in because it helped create the crisis in an […]

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Feb 28

Lets Talk About Mediocrity (Ahem, I Mean Mutual) Funds

by Chris Billows in Business Beller 0 comments tags: Smart Money Management
My first investment was in mutual funds which is what most people invest in because the mutual fund industry is very effective at promoting its products. There is a certain sense of security knowing that everyone else is also buying mutual funds. Unfortunately for the most part we have been sold a product that does what it says but does not deliver what you need. Yes, mutual funds do invest in the stock market. Yes, mutual funds do diversify the risk over hundreds of stocks but no, most mutual funds do not give you the returns you need. Diversify and Die? Mutual Funds will give you built in diversification. Some of them invest in entire stock market indexes, others invest into a combination of stocks and bonds, and some invest into other company mutual funds (which are called Fund of Funds, yikes!). Diversification of your investment money is important. You should never put all of your money into one company. Because you have no control over how that company does or how other investors react to the company’s news, it is best to hedge your dollars by spreading the risk around. Yet it is possible to over-diversify. Because mutual funds […]

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Jan 29

How to Pick the Right Stock Picking System

by Chris Billows in Business Beller 0 comments tags: How to Understand Money, Smart Money Management
Just like there are thousands of stocks to pick, there are hundreds of stock picking systems. And more are being created all of the time. But just like most stocks, most of them are not worth your time. This article will tell you what is wrong with most stock picking systems and what to look for in a system that works. There are basically three fundamental mistakes that need to be avoided. They are: 1) Choosing a system that is too narrow. 2) Choosing a system that is too broad. 3) Choosing a system that is too inflexible. Mistake #1: Picking a System that is too narrow Some systems will base their entire strategy on just technical indicators, multi-day candlestick patterns, or some form of divergence. The problem is that all of these systems are only using two factors: price and volume. Imagine if you were about to invest in a horse that competed in racing. Would you be satisfied with only the weight and speed of the horse? No matter how you graphed those two variables, they are only two criteria. You should also be interested in the breed of the animal, the competition it was racing against, the […]
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