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Dec 03

The Value of Ideas

by Chris Billows in Mental Mischief 0 comments
I really appreciated this post by Derek Sivers. Being the type of person who has lots of imagination and ideas, I can fall into the trap of thinking that ideas are worth something.   To me, ideas are worth nothing unless executed. They are just a multiplier. Execution is worth millions. Explanation: AWFUL IDEA = -1 WEAK IDEA = 1 SO-SO IDEA = 5 GOOD IDEA = 10 GREAT IDEA = 15 BRILLIANT IDEA = 20 ——– ——— NO EXECUTION = $1 WEAK EXECUTION = $1000 SO-SO EXECUTION = $10,000 GOOD EXECUTION = $100,000 GREAT EXECUTION = $1,000,000 BRILLIANT EXECUTION = $10,000,000 To make a business, you need to multiply the two. The most brilliant idea, with no execution, is worth $20. The most brilliant idea takes great execution to be worth $20,000,000. That’s why I don’t want to hear people’s ideas. I’m not interested until I see their execution.   This makes sense to me but I would argue that idea must have some kind of power of attraction. Otherwise, you lose your energy to persist and it falls apart. Execution will not happen unless the idea can hold our attention. I highly doubt a weak idea being perfectly […]
Oct 13

Jets Pay Five Years of Debt for Thrasher Draft Busts

by Chris Billows in Jets Flight Control 0 comments tags: Atlanta Thrashers Relocation, Jets Draft, Jets Improvement
We are hours away from the Winnipeg Jets sixth season and its a time of new beginnings. It is also a time to recount what’s been accomplished since the Winnipeg Jets have establishing their own non-Atlanta Thrashers identity in the past five years. One word can summarize these years: Mediocrity. A mediocrity that was inherited from the Atlanta Thrashers, who were a poorly run team that struggled to be competitive. The Jets too have not been competitive but we can fairly blame the Thrashers for this. Below is an explanation how the Winnipeg Jets are still paying a debt of mediocrity because the Thrashers were inept in drafting. To start here is a season-by-season summary of the Atlanta Thrashers last five seasons before moving: Season Conference Division Regular season Postseason Finish GP W L OTL Pts GF GA GP W L GF GA Result 2006–07 Eastern Southeast 1st 82 43 28 11 97 246 245 4 0 4 6 17 Lost in Conference Quarterfinals vs. New York Rangers, 0–4 2007–08 Eastern Southeast 4th 82 34 40 8 76 216 272 — — — — — Did not qualify 2008–09 Eastern Southeast 4th 82 35 41 6 76 257 280 — […]
Sep 25

Winnipeg Jets ECHL Usage 2011-2016

by Chris Billows in Jets Flight Control 0 comments tags: Jets Farm Team, Jets Improvement
NHL training camps have opened and not all of the players will get an NHL job. Not all of the players will get an AHL job either. This leaves the 3rd tier of professional hockey known as the ECHL. In my previous article on Parent and Farm Team collective performance I noted that the Jets do not play very many players at the ECHL level. Typically NHL teams use the ECHL as a place for depth goalies and defencemen to get ice time if they can’t crack the AHL lineup. The Winnipeg Jets and their AHL Farm Teams (the Ice Caps and the Moose) have used their ECHL level affiliation in that capacity up until recently. In the chart below you see the names and total numbers of players signed to a NHL or AHL contract that were sent to the ECHL affiliate. The Jets barely utilized their Colorado and Ontario affiliates in the first four years. [advanced_iframe securitykey=”f1c7736ca92d4b6153f3d7f60bd5d4d6ae63d8ee” src=”https://billo.ws/files/Winnipeg-Jets-ECHL-Usage-2011-16.htm” width=”100%” height=”1100″] This changes in the 2015-16 with the Tulsa Oilers affiliation. In 2015-16 the Jets sent down 7 different players including 4 forwards, where previously they sent down four players (mostly Goalies and Defencemen) at most. Anecdotal reporting indicates […]
Aug 31

The Magic of Space Science

by Chris Billows in Mental Mischief 0 comments tags: Human Condition, Quotations
Fascinating news this week. We have intercepted an alien signal and the speculation is that it is so strong and intentional it is thought to come from a civilization that is more advanced than our own. Not a Drill: SETI Is Investigating a Possible Extraterrestrial Signal From Deep Space “The signal’s strength indicates that if it in fact came from a isotropic beacon, the power source would have to be built by a Kardashev Type II civilization. (The Kardashev scale is used to determine the progress of a civilization’s technological development by measuring how much energy was used to transmit an interstellar message.) An ‘Isotropic’ beacon means a communication source emitting a signal with equal power in all directions while promoting signal strength throughout travel.” The news is remarkable, but just as remarkable is that somebody has created a civilization scale that borders on the absolute fantastic. The Kardashev Scale says that we are possibly receiving the signal from a civilization that has encased its sun with some kind of material so that no energy escapes the solar system! That is so amazing it sounds like magic, but what is just as astounding is that this level of civilization is […]

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Jul 09

Winnipeg Jets & Farm Team Collective Performance 2011-2016

by Chris Billows in Jets Flight Control 0 comments tags: Atlanta Thrashers Relocation, Jets Improvement, Minor League Stats
The professional hockey world shifted a bit when Atlanta Thrashers relocated to become the Winnipeg Jets in May 2011. Not only did the NHL get affected, but so did the pro minor league affiliations. Atlanta had existing affiliations with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL and the Gwinnett Glaidiators of the ECHL but because Winnipeg was already operating an AHL franchise, a  new affiliation hierarchy had to be formed. The Manitoba Moose franchise was moved to St. John’s (made up of prospects from the Chicago Wolves) and a new ECHL team, the Colorado Eagles was chosen as the ECHL affiliate. The purpose of this post is to track how the three levels of professional hockey affiliation have risen and fallen along side each other to see if there is any pattern. It tracks the 2011 to 2016 seasons. Note that the Winnipeg Jets owned the St-John’s IceCaps and then moved it to Winnipeg as the Manitoba Moose in 2015-16. The AHL team essentially has some continuity (Chicago Wolves to IceCaps to Wolves) while the various ECHL teams do not.   [advanced_iframe securitykey=”f1c7736ca92d4b6153f3d7f60bd5d4d6ae63d8ee” src=”https://billo.ws/files/Winnipeg-Jets-2011-16-Team-Affiliation-Trends.htm” width=”100%” height=”1700″]   So what pattern do we see looking at these three levels? At the ECHL […]

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Jun 25

Atlanta Thrashers Prospects Evaluation 1999 to 2016

by Chris Billows in Jets Flight Control 1 comments tags: Jets Draft, Jets Improvement, Minor League Stats
The 2016 NHL Entry Draft is underway and the Winnipeg Jets are adding to their cupboard of future hockey players. This is the sixth draft for the franchise since moving to Winnipeg. When it moved from Atlanta in 2011, the Winnipeg Jets inherited an empty cupboard of players and prospects. We just need to see the Winnipeg Jets records of marginal competitiveness for proof. The Winnipeg Jets essentially had to start restocking their prospects cupboard. Drafting and developing is the single best way for a sports franchise to build success yet you will see in the year-by-year breakdown below that the Thrashers did a very poor job of drafting good players and then did a poor job of developing them. How did I track this? By tracking each Thrasher draft prospect according to a very simple, transparent statistic called ProGames (ProGms). ProGames counts the number of NHL and AHL games that a drafted player accumulates for their new team. NHL games played count as 1.0 ProGms while AHL games played count as 0.5 ProGms, and these are accumulated across both Regular Season and Playoff Games. So a drafted player who plays 20 NHL and 10 AHL games for his new […]
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